HW News - DRAM Prices to Drop (Sort Of), Intel Partners Unhappy
Posted on October 14, 2018
We come bearing good news -- sort of. It looks like DRAM prices might drop 5% by end of year, which would sadly be a sharp change of course from previous targets. This coincides with plummeting SSD prices (250GB 860 EVOs now available for $55 on Amazon), though isn't nearly as severe. At this point, we'll take what we can get.
Separately, Intel's 14nm shortage has continued to a point of creating pipeline stalls for some of its motherboard and SI partners. We previously reported on Intel's push to reinvigorate its 22nm process for low-end chipsets. It is now becoming clear why that was a necessity. Other than this, our show notes below recap major industry news for the past two weeks, like tariffs, 8th Gen pricing increases, and more.
AIB Partners Attempt to Sidestep Tariffs
Amidst new tariffs, graphics cards are one of many PC related components that stand to be affected. We recently conducted our own interviews and published our findings in a recent article, but ultimately found that no vendor will remain unaffected, and prices are expected to inflate anywhere from 10% to 25%.
To possibly mitigate this, AIB partners are looking into relocating to Taiwan or Mexico. An Nvidia spokesperson confirmed that some of their partners were already moving affected production outside of China:
“We are working closely with our customers and partners to mitigate potential impacts related to the tariffs on AMD-based products. From all that we know today, we do not expect the US tariffs to have a material impact on our business.”
As we’ve said, the continuation of the current administration’s trade policies will be bad for both consumer and industry alike.
Source: https://www.techspot.com/news/76671-add-board-partners-move-graphics-card-manufacturing-out.html
AMD Could Regain 30% CPU Market Share in 4Q18
AMD continues to ride the momentum of their return to competition. Many sources have praised AMD’s stock prices and sales as of late, with some saying they’ve achieved sales parity with Intel. A report from Digitimes suggests that this forward momentum -- especially given Intel’s current woes -- could see AMD claw back as much as 30% of the market from incumbent Intel.
Granted, that would be a feat, and a few market experts have dispensed their skepticism about that prediction. While it’s reasonable to expect AMD’s stock and sales to continue to rise, as well as capitalize on Intel’s misfortunes, a 30% market share to happen by Q42018 is probably pushing the edge of reality.
Source: https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20180925PD204.html
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/amd-intel-market-share-desktop-pc,37864.html
Intel News: OEMs Unhappy, Shortages Until Mid-2019
At this point, Intel’s predicament appears to worsen weekly. Intel is widely expected to undersupply the CPU market in the last quarter of this year, but that shortage could extend into mid-2019, if reports from Compal are to be believed. Compal is an ODM for companies such as Apple, Dell, Lenovo and more. Additionally, many vendors have lowered their growth expectations for Q4 and revised their product roadmaps, as Intel hasn’t given clear signs to when they expect the undersupply to subside.
Moreover, it’s starting to appear like OEMs are becoming somewhat disenchanted with Intel. Short supply, high prices, and disrupted product planning and roadmaps have left them looking at other options -- which would be AMD.
Intel’s woes have created a unique landscape for AMD; they have an opportunity to supplant Intel in nearly every sector at this point. AMD has already been making inroads in the client computing sector, but AMD stands to pull back some of the lucrative server and OEM market as well. Hewlett Packard already expects that 1 out every 3 units they ship will contain an AMD processor -- and HP has already begun recommending Threadripper for their enterprise business due to a lack of Xeon parts.
Notebook OEMs stuck waiting on Whiskey and Amber Lake may become very interested in AMD’s newest Raven Ridge APUs as well. Intel’s shortages are expected to disrupt notebook shipments in a big way, and vendors could look to AMD to recover their product roadmaps and launch windows. All in all, it’s pretty good to be AMD right now.
Source: https://www.techpowerup.com/247866/more-buyers-for-amd-due-to-intel-cpu-shortages-oems-unhappy
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-14nm-cpu-shortage-compal,37858.html
DRAM Prices Could Lower 5% in 4Q18
It wouldn’t be a proper HW News without an update on DRAM pricing. A recent report from DRAMeXchange predicts DRAM will drop 5% in that last quarter of this year, due to high bit supply, but relatively low bit demand. Overall, the DRAM market continues to weaken, and both the PC and server segments are expected to see a ~5% drop in prices.
Source: https://press.trendforce.com/node/view/3163.html
Intel i9-9900K on Amazon With New Packaging
Ahead of Intel’s recent announcement for the i9-9900K, a brief listing appeared on Amazon, replete with new packaging targeting AMD’s Threadripper packaging.
Intel’s announcement at their Fall Desktop Event confirmed the new packaging, as well as the long speculated soldered IHS. We have articles detailing the new CPUs linked below.
https://www.gamersnexus.net/news-pc/3373-intel-9900k-soldered-cpus-announced
Intel 8th Gen SKUs Going Up in Price
As expected, the ripple effects of Intel’s 14nm shortage is are materializing. Specifically, 8th gen SKUs are starting to see price hikes, with the i7-8700K approaching $400. Also, the i5-8400 is seeing prices of $205 - $225, with Amazon being currently out of stock.
Newegg’s stock isn’t faring much better, with the i7-8770K going for $400, and the i5-8400 being out of stock. This ebb and flow with prices/stock will likely continue well into the holiday season at this point. For those planning an Intel based build, it may be wise to wait and see what happens with the 9000-series (Coffee Lake refresh) and see what kind of holiday sales materialize.
Source: https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-core-i7-8700k-price-increase,37877.html
Rumor: Intel Z399 Chipset To Accompany Skylake-X Refresh
Intel could name a successor to their X299 HEDT chipset in the form of Z399. This would most likely be on account of AMD already having X399 for Threadripper. Additionally, we’ll also have X599, that will presumably accompany Intel’s newer XCC and LGA3647 CPUs.
Z399 would primarily be a Skylake-X refresh, and compete with Threadripper’s X-series, while X599 would live alongside intel’s 28-core silicon and combat Threadripper’s WX chips.
https://www.pcbuildersclub.com/en/2018/09/intel-z399-as-successor-of-x299-for-x-processors/
Editorial: Eric Hamilton
Host: Steve Burke
Video: Andrew Coleman & Josh Svoboda